Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 19.938872 21.696918 23.640946 25.970622 28.714767 31.881171 35.867133
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.143499 19.414914 22.111121 25.618874 30.177216 36.082836 44.660069
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.270387 17.790002 20.939240 25.304046 31.453980 40.290204 55.086141
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.934549 16.586647 20.036884 25.070493 32.671293 44.683640 67.952316
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.931809 15.660329 19.327551 24.914182 33.882715 49.392351 84.422294
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.010573 14.729640 18.473793 24.369535 34.307104 52.851293 101.247983
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.665582 14.539601 18.623353 25.343972 37.466206 62.796896 147.451802
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.069058 13.934699 18.087383 25.118173 38.388651 68.463781 192.375401
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.622585 13.504902 17.764164 25.186170 39.878243 76.329602 274.694947
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.260317 13.167122 17.543968 25.389519 41.689127 86.302748 442.660188
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.907519 12.815974 17.266306 25.442997 43.188009 96.594503 809.730004
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.526397 12.396384 16.841250 25.163308 43.852852 104.741976 1671.756178
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.222922 12.082865 16.573897 25.168639 45.275637 117.733641 14590.230257
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.902367 11.725009 16.206226 24.934214 46.051724 129.223412 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.604474 11.386722 15.847548 24.676144 46.718376 141.549716 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.338984 11.085922 15.532208 24.470708 47.497587 156.340440 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.103712 10.821475 15.261895 24.328635 48.442824 174.768070 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.828006 10.479772 14.835411 23.808592 48.121407 183.849867 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.784060 10.509604 15.067197 24.746636 52.745929 253.560368 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.580811 10.269286 14.796759 24.530381 53.460448 287.147358 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.428001 10.105486 14.655838 24.596017 55.230460 350.565193 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.300807 9.978461 14.574398 24.791517 57.593237 456.142876 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 7.162775 9.827399 14.438868 24.842948 59.448507 592.757836 NaN